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February capped the best two-month start for the S&P 500
in 32 years, +11.1%.  Key drivers were
anecdotal progress on U.S.-Sino trade negotiations, renewed dovishness from the
Fed, and a decent wrap on Q4 earnings. 
Stock and bond markets alike delivered positive returns with the only
exception being long duration and non-U.S. bonds due to interest rates and the
U.S. dollar moving higher.

Market Anecdotes

• Investors welcomed yet another delay in raising tariffs with U.S. officials citing significant progress ...

Equity markets rebounded sharply in January after the sharp
December decline.  The S&P 500 is now up approximately 17% from the
December lows and credit spreads are trading back near mid-November levels.
 An early January pivot by the Fed, progress on China trade negotiations,
and some modest improvements in macro bellwethers were the primary drivers.
 Interest rates moved slightly lower, but commodity markets rallied in
sympathy with global risk markets. Energy, grains, industrial metals, and
precious metals all posted strong ...

A small rebound in November was followed up with the worst month since February 2009 and the worst December since the Great Depression.  Early December constructive G20 meetings regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations were followed up with a “Tariff Man” tweet (trade), a persistent Fed (rates), EU budget standoffs (policy), Brexit concerns (policy), European protests (policy), slowing Chinese GDP (growth), negative earnings guidance, and an oil bear market taking most global equity markets well into bear market territory and the U.S. ...

This holiday season we’re excited to grant another Christmas Wish through STAR 102.5’s Christmas Wish, on behalf of Silvercap and our clients.   There are so many incredible people in our community who are making a difference; it gives us great joy to have the ability to assist those who are helping others. 

Please take a moment to listen to the clip below of Ken & Colleen interviewing Donna about a Christmas wish she has for her husband Mike, who served as a ...

November provided the equity markets a bit of relief following the volatility spike in October.  China (trade, growth), oil (bear market),and Fed (tightening) remained the dominant macro themes.  A double-barreled hope rally on positive indications on U.S.-Sino trade negotiations and less hawkish Fed narratives fed a respectable recovery.  Diverging fundamentals between U.S. and International markets became more evident with non-U.S. economic results in a more established decelerating trend while U.S. fundamentals remained relatively robust.  Bond yields fell on reduced ...

The October Narrative  

Talk about a change in narrative.  When it comes to financial markets, the last few weeks of October provide a great example of how quickly gains can vanish but also a reminder of how normal such occurrences are historically.  Entering October, the S&P was up nearly 10% YTD, 3Q earnings expectations were superb, and the U.S. economy was on point. By month end, we had tied the longest streak of consecutive down days (28) for the S&P ...

At the time of this writing, we are experiencing some interest rate anxiety which manifested itself in equity market volatility.  As for September, owning the dubious historical distinction as the worst month of the year for equity markets, it bucked the trend delivering modestly positive returns on risk assets.  Unlike October to date, September was a relatively quiet month where constructive U.S. economic data and progress on trade negotiations outweighed inflation/rate trends, Italian budget deficit debate, U.S.-Sino trade conflict, and ...

August delivered robust U.S. equity returns concentrated in small cap and growth stocks. Non-U.S equities, particularly emerging markets struggled while bonds benefited from falling rates and tighter spreads. It seems the incremental shift in the U.S. economy from low inflation and moderate growth to moderate inflation and strong growth has taken hold while currency stresses and weaker economies overseas pose challenges. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all notched new record highs as the MSCI World ex/U.S. index closed ...

U.S. equity markets in June brushed aside developing global trade conflicts, evolving hawkish tilts from several global central banks, and persistent political noise instead focusing on sound economic and earnings backdrops. Non-U.S. markets struggled in the face of a strong U.S. dollar and China’s slowing economy. Shorter term interest rates and credit spreads crept slightly higher in June on inflation and trade conflict narratives respectively. The market outlook remains cautiously constructive in the near term with trade conflict and monetary ...