News

Markets in December navigated several crosscurrents including weakening trends across the global economy, a Chinese exit from its zero-Covid public health policy, the BoJ abandoning its yield curve control policy, and a continuation of hawkish global central bank policies. Decelerating inflation trends remained evident throughout the month with wage inflation and tight labor markets both key concerns for policy makers.    

While Q4 was positive, U.S. equity markets faltered in December, giving back a chunk of October/November gains while international markets managed ...

Key market narratives in August included continued deceleration in economic growth, the completion of a strong second quarter earnings season, and a Jackson Hole symposium where central bankers pledged to maintain their hawkish course to tame inflation.

The month was a tale of two halves across global equities with a strong rally in the first two weeks and a sharp reversal in the last two weeks as the Fed made clear its commitment to bringing inflation back down to target levels.  ...

For the month of July

Market narratives during July included relatively strong second quarter earnings reports, decelerating global economic growth, and central bank resolve with a backdrop of persistently high inflation which began to show signs of moderating toward month end.  The FOMC (75bps) and ECB (50bps) both delivered expected rate hikes during the month as they attempt to temper inflation without crippling their respective economies.  This was the ECB’s first rate hike since 2011.  Wall Street’s focus on growth with ...

April was the cruelest month of the year thus far with all major global financial assets performing poorly
with the exception of the U.S. dollar. Monetary policy, inflation, supply chain disruptions, Chinese zero
tolerance Covid policy, and the war in Ukraine combined to push rates and commodities sharply higher
and global equities lower. After posting one of the only positive numbers in March, U.S. equity markets
lost 8.7% in April, one of the worst returning equity markets globally with technology ...

While the bounce in the back half of March felt like a recovery, the upside move was limited to U.S.
equities and commodities while fixed income markets posted a fourth consecutive month of losses and
international markets struggled through a backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Volatility across equity and
interest rate markets remained elevated with the war and the removal of monetary policy
accommodation the key drivers.
U.S. equities (+3.48%) led the way in March with global ex-U.S. (+1.16) ...

FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY

January kicked off the new year with a thud, fueled by inflation/policy dynamics, geopolitical anxiety, robust corporate earnings, and ongoing Covid induced economic imbalances. Bond and equity markets adjusted to a gradual yet notable shift in Federal Reserve policy intent for 2022 by pulling forward expectations for increases in the Fed funds rate and the conclusion of quantitative easing. Markets moved from early January pricing in three rate hikes in 2022 to five or six by ...

For the month of December, 2021

The bull market marched on in December 2021, marking multiple new record highs on its way to a 4.48% return for the month, an 11% return for the quarter, and a whopping 28.71% return for 2021. The S&P 500 sits deeply in triple digit territory (+117%) since the Covid recovery rally began in March 2020 and has been far and away the top performing major equity index and market globally.  Small caps, depending on your ...

In what has been one of the weaker months of the year, markets in June saw stocks, bonds, and commodities all close higher to wrap up the second quarter and first half of 2021. The stock market finished the month at or near record highs even though we saw quite a bit of movement during the month including the worst performance week since October followed by the best performance week since February. After all was said and done, global stocks ...

For the month of May

Prevailing market dynamics in May included generally encouraging CoVid trends, persistent fiscal and monetary stimulus, and robust global economic ‘reopening’ data.  The great inflation debate intensified during May with rising commodity prices, big upside surprises in headline CPI, and persistent supply chain issues driving the narrative. Financial markets and the Fed remained sanguine despite the near-term inflation dynamics, but policy makers began to condition markets for the eventual tapering of QE programs and wind downs of ...