News

Vladimir Lenin is not someone we would generally quote but this one has a “Yogi Berra” quality and timeliness that we couldn’t resist as he once said, “There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen.” After record breaking recovery months in April/May, equity markets got into a tug of war in June between two forces, the virus impact on growth and the stimulus response to the virus. The S&P 500 did briefly dip its toe into ...

A global trend of reopening economies, improving virus data, and massive stimulus bolstered the view that the bottoming of economic data is behind us which, after the best April (+12.82%) for the S&P 500 since 1987, delivered the best May (+4.76%) since 2009 – the best back to back monthly results since exiting the GFC. Cyclicals joined in the recovery in the latter half of May with industrials (+5.5%) and materials (+7%) posting strong gains. European and Latin American led equities globally ...

Following the weakest month since October 2008, the S&P 500 (+12.82%) turned in its best month since 1987 – exhibit A on the perils of market timing.  Diverging fortunes between the dire economic outcomes of the virus and global containment measures relative to stock market performance were on display.  The stock market rally bore the imprint of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary responses from around the world with a strong case to be made that the U.S. Treasury and Fed ...

Did that just happen? March was a month most investors would prefer to forget, and it officially marked the end of a historic 11-year bull market. While stress levels in most markets didn’t reach 2008 levels of dislocation, the velocity and degree of volatility far surpassed much of what we saw during that crisis. The double barrel of Covid-19 and a crash in crude oil prices drove March 2020 straight to the unenviable record of the most volatile month in ...

For the month of December

Global equity markets followed up a strong November with an equally strong December, rising 3% on the month to close the year up 27.67% on a USD basis.  Emerging markets surged 7.46%, the best performing global equity market, while the U.S. (+2.88%), Europe (+3.91%), and Asia Pacific (+2.21%) all finished the year on strong notes as well.  The yield curve continued to steepen as long rates moved higher while shorter term rates climbed marginally. Commodity markets ...

We entered October with ‘huge’ trade dispute concerns, ISM numbers
at GFC levels, over 50% probability of two Fed rate cuts before year end, and
tangible pessimism in both earnings and sentiment.  We exited October with
the market breaking out to new record highs, one courtesy rate cut, firming
fundamentals, and the global economy seemingly on a low but stable path
forward. The combination of healthy financial conditions (rates, spreads,
equity markets, liquidity) and a tangible reduction in geopolitical risks
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The August
Narrative     

The dog days of August were anything but sleepy, dominated by
three “T’s” – trade, tariffs, treasuries.  Brexit, trade, Hong Kong and
the economy moved markets in an up/down fashion throughout the month.
U.S.-China trade war ‘tariffied’ markets, driving volatility and raising
questions as to if and when the disruption risks pushing global economies into
recession.  From the start of the month to the end, we saw ten rallies of
1% or more separated by nine declines of ...

With an S&P 500 gain of 18% in the first four months, 2019
ranks as the fourth best start to a year on record and is one of only 15 times
since 1950 with four consecutive positive months to begin the year.  Key
events on the month included kicking the Brexit can again down the road, Q1
earnings calls, central bank policy decisions, and China trade/credit stimulus
developments. Relative economic strength in the U.S. bolstered the US dollar
for the ...

March followed up the best two-month start for the S&P 500 in
32 years with a bow on top of the best quarter since Q3 2009.  Global
equity markets were led by the U.S. (1.8%), India (9.2%), and China (2.4%) but
overall global equities (0.6%) where tempered due to weakness in Germany
(-1.4%), Turkey (-14.9%), and Brazil (-3.8%).  Oil moved sharply higher on
the back of a strained global production backdrop (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi)
while small caps and financials lagged ...